The US government halted imports of new-crop avocados from Mexico for nearly a week after a US inspector was threatened, months before one of the highest consumption days for the product.

While the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced on February 18 that its avocado inspection program in Michoacan, Mexico has restarted and avocado exports to United States had resumed, what could happen if the suspension was reinstated before Cinco de Mayo?

A look back

The USDA said the suspension was issued on February 11 “following a security incident (verbal threat) involving our employees. The market was reopened on February 18 after the USDA worked with the Regional Security Officer of the United States Embassy in Mexico, the Mexican National Plant Protection Organization (SENASICA), and the Association of Avocado Producers and Exporters of Mexico (APEAM) to adopt additional measures to improve safety. for APHIS inspectors working in the field.

“The safety of USDA employees who are simply doing their jobs is of paramount importance. The USDA appreciates the positive, collaborative relationship between the United States and Mexico that made possible the timely resolution of this issue. the agency said via a press release.

Due to the massive growth of the Mexican avocado trade, Michoacan cartels began fighting to control it. In 2017, it was revealed that cartels in the region had been extorting avocado growers for decades, reported Newsweek (February 14th).

Suspension of imports of avocados

The import suspension could disrupt an otherwise lucrative avocado trade between the countries. Imports increased by 8% in volume in 2021, reaching almost 2.5 billion pounds. worth $2.8 billion, according to Food Institute Census Bureau data analysis

Despite increased import volume from Chile (+247% to nearly £9m) and the Dominican Republic (+178% to around £5.6m), Mexico accounted for the lion’s share of imports and accounted for about 92% of the annual total. in 2021.

Mexico’s avocado imports come exclusively from the state of Michoacan, although market access was expected to open for the state of Jalisco at the start of the new harvest season in April. The impact of current events on the opening of this market remains unclear.

“This negotiation had been going on for several years as US agriculture officials worked with Mexican agriculture officials to obtain compliance and certification to ship to the United States. Jalisco is still a young avocado-producing region. Jalisco is estimated to produce an export volume of 10-15% of Michoacan’s volume. This volume is still equivalent to the average California crop volume,” Brad Rubin, industry analyst at Wells Fargo, said in an email to food institute.

California production

Although the California Avocado Commission’s forecast showed an increase from the 2021 season, its crop would likely not be enough to fill the gap caused by a prolonged suspension of imports, according to Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist. from Wells Fargo.

Per capita consumption of avocados reached 8.9 pounds. per person in 2020, according to Food Institute USDA data analysis. Just five years earlier, per capita consumption was just 6.9 pounds. per person.

The commission estimated a harvest of 306 million pounds, a 15% increase on the final harvest in 2021. Volume is expected to increase seriously in March, with 80% of the seasonal volume expected between April and August.

“California avocado growers welcomed the rains in December and January because they moved the region from severe drought to moderate drought conditions, and the rain generally has a positive impact on tree health. and the size of avocados,” Jan DeLyser, vice president of marketing for the California Avocado Commission, said in a press release.

Continued strong demand in retail and catering

According to Food Institute IRI data analysis. Dollar sales also fell 0.9% to $2.5 billion. However, compared to the pre-pandemic period of February 2020, sales increased in both dollars (+7.4%) and units (+10.7%).

210 Analytics director Anne-Marie Roerink noted that avocados were one of the few items to show significant deflation in 2020, and it wasn’t until the third quarter of 2021 that prices started to rise. During the deflationary period, consumers jumped on the ability to buy many more avocados at a good price, which made unit and volume growth comparisons with 2021 difficult.

“Because of this deflation, the 52-week look for avocados makes America’s love affair with avocados look like it’s over, but that’s anything but true,” she said. declared. food institute in an email.

Meanwhile, Chipotle Mexican Grill could face a supply chain nightmare if another suspension were to occur. Known for its guacamole, the company has taken steps in recent years to diversify its supply chain, but like most U.S. companies, it relies on Mexican product to fuel its guacamole sales, reported The New York Post (February 15).

Vacation impact

In 2021, avocado producer Mission Produce estimated that 100 million Americans would celebrate Cinco de Mayo, and those consumers would eat about 70 million pounds. lawyers for the holidays.

“Cinco de Mayo is quite regionalized in the Pacific and Southwest regions of the country. People may be looking to buy avocados for guacamole, but [the import suspension] shouldn’t be too punchy,” Wells Fargo’s Rubin said before the suspension was lifted. “Prices may rise as the product becomes harder to obtain or more expensive to import, but there should be enough supply for Americans and Mexican Americans to participate in the Cinco De Mayo festivities,” said Rubin.